The Decision Canvas turns the Think and Test parts of the journey into a practical, one-page decision tool.
Its purpose is not to describe a complete business. It helps founders examine an opportunity, expose assumptions, gather evidence and decide whether further investment is justified.
How to use this page: Record what you have learned—not what you hope is true. Use the prompts when evidence is missing, then make only the decision that the evidence supports.
The Canvas asks one question: Does this opportunity deserve the next investment?
What founders learn updates Evidence, Assumptions and the next Decision.
How the Canvas is organised
The opportunity trigger begins the investigation. Eleven blocks then guide the founder through Think, Test and a decision:
- Think — What is happening, who experiences it, why does it matter and what must be true?
- Test — How will we test the most important assumption and what result will guide us?
- Decide — Does the evidence justify Build, Pivot, Pause or Stop?
The blocks are completed in sequence, but new evidence may send the founder back to an earlier block.
Opportunity trigger
What caught our attention?
Capture the frustration, repeated workaround, unexpected behaviour, unmet need or external change that started the investigation.
The trigger is not counted as a canvas block. It explains why the investigation began.
Think — Observe the situation
Observation
What is actually happening?
Record real behaviour without explaining its cause. Keep observations separate from assumptions and possible solutions.
- What did we directly see, hear or measure?
- Which behaviour is repeated?
- Where does friction appear?
- What are we interpreting rather than observing?
Customer
Who experiences this most meaningfully?
Choose a specific customer and context. Avoid broad groups such as “small businesses” or “everyone who works online.”
- Who experiences the problem most frequently?
- Who experiences the greatest consequences?
- Who currently tries to solve it?
- Who decides whether money or effort will be invested?
Current behaviour
What does the customer do today?
Document current behaviour before proposing a replacement. What customers already do is usually stronger evidence than what they say they might do.
- What process or workaround do they use?
- What tools, people or services are involved?
- What does the current approach cost?
- Why do they continue using it?
Think — Understand the opportunity
Problem
What prevents the customer from making progress?
Describe the customer, situation, difficulty and consequence in one focused problem statement.
- Are we describing the cause or only a symptom?
- Can we state the problem without mentioning our solution?
- When does the problem occur?
- What customer progress is being prevented?
Impact
Why does the problem matter?
A problem can be real without being important enough to support a product or business. Record the consequences rather than relying on adjectives such as “painful” or “frustrating.”
- How frequently does it occur?
- What does it cost in time, money, risk or effort?
- What happens if nothing changes?
- Is the impact large enough to motivate action?
Existing alternatives
How is the customer solving this today?
Alternatives include competitors, spreadsheets, email, manual work, hiring another person or accepting the problem. The strongest competitor is often the customer’s current behaviour.
- What products or manual methods are used?
- What works well about the current approach?
- What remains unsatisfactory?
- Is doing nothing an acceptable alternative?
Evidence
What supports our understanding?
Separate weak signals such as stated interest from stronger evidence such as customer effort, commitment, payment, repeated use and measurable outcomes.
- What have relevant customers actually done?
- How many times have we observed the pattern?
- What contradicting evidence exists?
- Is our evidence strong enough for the investment being considered?
Test — Create useful evidence
Critical assumptions
What must be true for this opportunity to work?
Consider customer, problem, behaviour, value, payment, access, feasibility and distribution assumptions. Select one highest-risk assumption.
- Which belief could make the opportunity fail?
- How important is the assumption?
- How much evidence supports it?
- Which high-importance, low-evidence assumption should be tested first?
Validation experiment
How will we test the highest-risk assumption?
Choose a focused experiment such as observation, interviews, a manual service, prototype, landing page, pre-order, paid pilot or letter of intent.
- What specific assumption are we testing?
- What customer behaviour would provide evidence?
- Can we test it without building the product?
- What is the smallest responsible investment?
Success criteria
What result will guide our decision?
Define the criteria before running the experiment. “Customers respond positively” is not a decision criterion.
- What minimum result counts as success?
- What time period will we use?
- What evidence is required?
- What result would cause us to change direction or stop?
Decide — Choose what the evidence justifies
Evidence-based decision
What does the evidence justify?
Record the decision, date, supporting evidence, remaining uncertainty and next action. A Build decision authorizes only the next responsible investment, not the complete product.
- Which criteria were met or missed?
- What uncertainty remains?
- What is the cost of being wrong at the next stage?
- Should we Build, Pivot, Pause or Stop?
- What is the maximum responsible next investment?
Evidence justifies the next investment.
The opportunity remains, but the direction must change.
More evidence or better conditions are needed.
The opportunity does not justify further investment.
What the Canvas deliberately excludes
Canvas V0.1 does not include:
- Product features or technology stack
- Detailed business model
- Revenue forecasts
- Branding or marketing plans
- Fundraising
- Team structure
- Long-term financial projections
Those questions come later. The Canvas exists to decide whether the opportunity deserves that later work.
Completion standard
The Canvas is ready for a decision when the founder can demonstrate:
- A specific customer and situation
- A clearly defined problem and impact
- Evidence from relevant behaviour
- Understanding of existing alternatives
- One identified highest-risk assumption
- A completed validation experiment
- Predetermined success criteria
- A decision connected to evidence